With the presidential election too close to call and both houses of Congress up for grabs in November, industry and legal observers predicted that a Gore presidency would lead the agency to expand its regulatory regime, while a Bush presidency would likely drive the agency back to its core functions of licensing and spectrum management.

If Vice President Gore is elected, "A Gore FCC would follow through and maybe accelerate regulatory initiatives" launched by Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman William Kennard and his predecessor, Reed Hundt, said Richard Wiley, an FCC chairman during the Ford administration and a leading media attorney in Washington.

Experts said it remained difficult to gauge how Texas Gov. George W. Bush might revamp the FCC, since he has said little so far about the agency during the presidential campaign. Still, few doubt that the FCC under Bush would scale back its regulatory role on issues like media mergers, spectrum auctions, and requiring competing industries to share infrastructureand content.

Despite Bush's silence on regulatory issues affecting the telecommunications and media industries, Wiley and other observers said it is likely that if elected Bush would appoint FCC Commissioner Michael Powell to head the agency. Powell, a Republican appointee, "would look askance at new regulations," Wiley said.

A key issue for the FCC under the next administration will be whether it pursues a policy of competition vs. regulation, said Jonathan Blake, a broadcast attorney and chief counsel to Maximum Service Television, a broadcasters' group based here. Put another way, Blake added, the issue could be considered "bottlenecks vs. competition," a reference to a few powerful companies who control access to cable, data and telecommunications networks.

"It's hard to discern where the two parties come out on this issue," Blake said.

Another issue that confounds observers is how the political parties would handle spectrum management issues. Blake said a policy of "flexible spectrum allocation," or using spectrum designated for one purpose for another, "has taken hold."

A prime example is an FCC plan to move broadcasters off channels 60 to 69 and auction the spectrum for wireless data applications. Broadcasters have fought the planned auction, which they argue would drive them off channels that remain "community assets."

Nevertheless, the FCC recently completed its 700-MHz auction of so-called "guard band" frequencies designed to protect new users of channels 60 to 69 from interference from adjacent broadcasters. The auction completed on Sept. 21 raised a total of nearly $520 million in net bids, the agency said.

So-called "guard band managers" will be able to subdivide their spectrum and lease it to third parties for commercial and private wireless uses. The approach is designed to improve spectrum management and protect public safety spectrum from interference.

A total of 96 licenses were sold to nine winning bidders who competed for a pair of 2- and 4-MHz licenses in 52 U.S. regions, the FCC said. Eight unsold licenses will be auctioned later.

Thomas Sugrue, chief of the FCC's Wireless Telecommunications Bureau, said spectrum users would "operate in a manner that protects adjacent public-safety spectrum users from interference."

License winners are now required to make down payments by early October. In previous wireless auctions, the FCC has had trouble collecting fees when some bidders failed to procure financing.

Broadcasters remain skeptical of the auction policy and hope that under a Bush administration the FCC would back off the spectrum auction push. "Driving us off channels 60 to 69 is not good public policy," said Shaun Sheehan, an executive with the Tribune Co.

Critics of the current FCC also worry that a Gore administration would move beyond regulation to content control and strict regulation of the media industry. They cite recent efforts by candidate Gore to pressure Hollywood studios to stop marketing R-rated films to children. Patrick Maines, president of the Media Institute, an industry group that focuses on free-speech issues, warned of possible censorship if efforts to pressure the media continue through agencies like the FCC and the Federal Trade Commission.

"We're not on a slippery slope, we're at the edge of a cliff," in terms of threats to First Amendment rights, Maines warned. "These problems may well become worse under a Gore administration than a Bush administration."

On the other hand, Maines said a Bush presidency would likely bring continued media consolidation, which would ultimately weaken the industry's ability to influence policy at the FCC and elsewhere in the next administration. Political power stems from having many companies competing in the same market, Maines said.

Also up for grabs in the November elections is control of the House and Senate. Observers said the Democrats' best chance to gain a majority might be in the House, while the GOP is expected to retain control of the Senate. How the reshuffling will affect the FCC remains unclear, Wiley said, since the agency frequently gets "mixed signals" from Congress. Indeed, many observers consider the FCC to be an increasingly independent agency, even though statutorily it must answer to Congress.

Part of its growing independence stems from legislators' increasing reliance on the agency to work out the details of sweeping legislation like the 1996 telecommunications law.

FCC officials said the same industries that complain about over-regulation often petition the agency to regulate their competitors. For instance, broadcasters have for several years been seeking an FCC mandate to force cable operators to carry their digital TV signals on their systems. According to one agency official, the industry approach is often, "Don't regulate me, regulate the other guy."

But agency critics said the FCC is moving well beyond its core spectrum management responsibilities into areas where it lacks expertise. They cite voluntary conditions imposed by the FCC on recent media mergers. "I think these [merger conditions] have just been a mess," said broadcast attorney Jonathan Blake.